Center for Ecosystem Forecasting
Our Mission
We are an interdisciplinary research center that creates innovative forecasts of future environmental dynamics, providing actionable insights for decision-making.
We are an action-oriented research center: we collect and analyze environmental data; build and share ecological models and software; create and assess a range of forecasting methods; translate and communicate forecasts for decision support; and partner and engage with forecast users. We strive to advance the discipline of ecosystem forecasting globally by leading cutting-edge forecasting research, education, and community engagement.
- Ecology + Data + Models = Insights
- Ecology + Data + Models = Insights
- Ecology + Data + Models = Insights
News & Updates
Follow Along
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Ecological forecasting research team crosses ecosystem boundaries , articleA $1 million, four-year National Science Foundation grant will help better understand how natural hazards impact the forest and soils that control the water quality that ends up in drinking water reservoirs.
Date: Oct 21, 2025 - -
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Mary Lofton earns Ecological Forecasting Outstanding Publication Award , articleThe Center for Ecosystem Forecasting is looking years ahead to train the next generation of ecosystem forecasters, environmental data scientists, and water managers with their Macrosystems EDDIE (Environmental Data-Driven Inquiry and Exploration) undergraduate training program.
Date: Oct 10, 2025 - -
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Five faculty members elected to the Virginia Academy of Science, Engineering, and Medicine , articleThe new members are Cayelan Carey, William "Bill" Hopkins, Liwu Li, Hesham Rakha, and Julie Ross.
Date: Sep 30, 2025 -
Featured News
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'Curious Conversations' podcast: Cayelan Carey talks about ecosystem forecasting , articleCarey's ecosystem forecasting provides near real-time predictions about water quality in lakes and reservoirs. Believed to be the first of its kind, the system is collecting data from 15 lakes and reservoirs spanning three continents and providing each with a daily, 30-day forecast.
Date: Sep 22, 2025 - -
Video ItemResearchers deploy water quality forecasting system around the globe , video
Researchers at the Center for Ecosystem Forecasting have developed a system that can predict the quality of drinking water in lakes and reservoirs. By combining advanced sensor technologies, data analysis, AI, machine learning, and cyberinfrastructure, ecosystem forecasting tools have the potential to revolutionize environmental policy and security. This technology has now been applied to help manage lakes and reservoirs in countries around the world.
Date: Sep 03, 2025 - -
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Why This Work Matters
We can no longer use historical baselines to predict tomorrow’s environmental conditions.
The environment is changing dramatically, and quickly.
We develop tools to predict future environmental conditions, in the way the National Weather Service currently forecasts weather. The environmental variables we focus on provide critical services for society and bolster our understanding of natural resource management.